Elo simulator
Set a starting user rating, a problem rating, a success rate, and a number of rounds. Each round is treated as a rated first attempt, using the same Elo functions as production.
expected score0.240
user K32
on success+24
on failure-8
30 success · 20 failure
1400
+200
1344
reading the chart
The gold line is the user rating and the muted line is the problem rating. In the real product only your first submission for a problem is rated, so read the gold line as you working through fresh problems near this rating, and the muted line as one problem attempted by many solvers near yours. Real results also arrive in a less regular order than this success-rate pattern.