Elo simulator
Set a starting user rating, a problem rating, a success rate, and a number of rounds. The simulation uses the same pure Elo functions as production.
expected score0.240
user K32
on success+24
on failure-8
30 success · 20 failure
1400
+200
1344
reading the chart
The gold line is the user rating and the muted line is the problem rating. This simulation changes both ratings after every round; real submissions use the same formulas but are not deterministic by success-rate pattern.